Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma gives statistics about the 2011 Census in support of his views on the demographic issues raised in the state.
The issue has been raised by Assam Chief Minister “Himanta Biswa Sarma,” who speculates that the number of “Bangladesh-origin Muslim residents in Assam could increase vastly by the time the next census is published in 2027. It seems that the matter of demographics in Assam remains an issue that politicians would rather not address.
Citing the ‘2011 Census’, Chief minister Sarma said that ‘Muslims accounted for 34 percent of Assam’s population at that time. Of this number, 3 percent are indigenous Assamese Muslims while the other 31 percent are ‘Bangladesh-origin Muslims’.’ ‘No census was conducted in 2021 due to delays,’ said the Chief Minister in explaining the reason for the deferred nationwide census because of the ‘COVID-19 pandemic. ‘By the time the census report comes out in 2027, the number of Bangladesh-origin Muslims in Assam may already be around 40 percent,’ he added.
These statements are a result of historical apprehensions felt by certain political circles concerning undocumented immigration from Bangladesh, which has long influenced debates about Assam’s social, political, and cultural identity. The state has long experienced turmoil concerning migration and citizenship, which has occurred most fervently during the Assam Movement of the 1980s and through the development of the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
Although the statement was couched in demographic terms, the political responses to the statement have been diverse. Pro-Sarma observers point out that the importance of pointing to demographic facts, especially with regards to resource, employment, and political space, could not be overestimated. Critics have, however, indicated that forecasts regarding changes based upon religion or national origins could contribute to inciting inter-communal conflicts.“The demography in Assam is a very sensitive issue with obvious implications for elections, governance, and social harmony.
There are historical resentments, besides current controversies over citizenship, identity, and migration, which make the issue extremely contentious. The Chief Minister’s forecast of a near 40 percent Bangladesh-origin Muslim population in 2027 is bound to excite debates about the future demographic and political prospects in Assam.”The next census, which includes the 2021 enumeration due to some delay in data collection, is also expected to supply updated population figures and help reveal a new social profile for the state of Assam.
It is likely that all concerned, including policymakers and political activists, will study this information, especially within the context of resource allocation and political representation.However, population projections must be handled carefully, warn scholars, as overenthusiastic projections may create unforeseen problems in widening divergences in societies.
In a state like Assam, where societal memory and politics of identity have strong traces, handling projections of population figures in public declarations is important to preserve a balanced society.Sarma’s statements are also made at a point when the Assam state government has been involved in discourse on citizenship verification and NRC updates, connecting demographic issues with policy interventions on the citizen status of the residents. This setting makes conjectures on population composition highly political.
In this respect, it can be seen that tensions with respect to migration and demographic change in the state take centre stage in Sarma’s comment about the increasing ratio of Muslims with Bangladesh origin according to the predictions by the Assam Chief Minister. However, it needs to be noted that the final statistics will be known in 2027 with the conduct of the 2027 census.
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